Abstract—Urban growth and land use systems are complex systems that mainly grow from the bottom up so it is difficult or even impossible to represent these processes by using top-down GIS functionality. Instead of using traditional top-down models such as GIS, recent studies have shown that these complex natural systems can be effectively simulated by using a number of bottom-up models, such as cellular automaton models (CAs). In this study Using Zanjan area, Iran as an example, future land use/cover changes up to 2041 were simulated based on a Markov-cellular automata model that integrates Markovian transition probabilities computed from satellite-derived land use/cover maps and a cellular automata spatial filter. In this study Calibration of the model was performed by using of a new statistical method based on regression analysis and correlation coefficient. Three separate models including CA model, Markov model and Markov-cellular automata model was calibrated. The Markov-cellular automata’s overall simulation success is 71% that is very acceptable in urban predictions. Future land use/cover simulations indicated that if the current land use/cover trends continue in the study area rural settlements that are located near the Zanjan city such as Payeen koh and Do asb will become new suburban areas of the city and their valuable agriculture lands change to urban built-up area.
Index Terms—Calibration, CA-markov model, complex system, land use/cover changes, simulation.
P. Jalerajabi is with the Department of urban Planning, Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (e-mail: parvaneh.jalerajabi@gmail.com).
R. Ahmadian is with the Department of urban design and urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan Branch, Zanjan, Iran (e-mail: rahmadian@ yahoo.com).
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Cite:P. Jalerajabi and R. Ahmadian, "Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Changes in Zanjan City, Iran Based on the CA-Markov Model and the Assessment of Its Impact on Surroundings Rural Settlements," International Journal of Computer Theory and Engineering vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 726-730, 2013.
